Why The Exit Polls Should Have Congress Crowing

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Not that makes you. Yes, Rajasthan continues to trend towards the Congress and KCR seems to be coming back in Telangana. Your guess seems to be as good as the pollsters who are a divided lot. Therefore you are left with an”anything could happen” and the political term,”It depends.”

The problem is that the more exit surveys you’ve got, the more situations they toss up, so it appears. In Telangana, should you believe their surveys and the local TV stations, KCR is coming home singing, winning anything from 75-90 chairs in the meeting. Meaning TRS, exactly what the opposition calls KCR’s personal celebration, will profit 12+ seats. That would be a huge victory than conventional wisdom would have projected. (Of course, there are reports that the State Intelligence Bureau has also called a sweep to the Chief Minister, but that’s hardly surprising: after all, in 1977, the Intelligence Bureau advised Mrs Gandhi she was in the peak of her popularity.) 1 way individuals avoid the pitfalls of those vagaries of exit surveys is to perform a poll of polls (such as NDTV) and give the average of all them as the best possible situation. This works when there are few outliers, and the scope is narrow. And this is exactly what you get.

However, the outliers will be the spoilers. If you have a look in Telangana, the trend is clear, but because of two polls, the poll of polls shows the TRS is coming back with a good working majority, and while that may happen, it is really against the trend of their exit surveys, which show the TRS since the single-largest celebration close to, but probably short of, an overall bulk.

If you leave out both local stations, of those five, just one, Times Now-CNX, gives the TRS an unqualified bulk. This is just short of a majority and can be encouraged using the median instead the average of the polls.

The huge element in favour of this TRS is they begin with 40 strong seats and will need to hold/win another 20. A issue for the Congress has been that its allies seem to have brought nothing into the table. Even as it has been trashed by KCR Naidu’s efforts to get through the back-door to Telangana the TDP appears to have lost ground. Congress should acquire 60 out of the 101, with the possibilities receding in those 18 chairs. That is a tall order in a state where 8 percent of the voters have disappeared from the electoral rolls along with the state election commissioner responds to that omission with”Sorry!”

And the consequences are enormous. This means that for KCR to form a government, he’ll need to seek support from the MIM, that is assured of 7 chairs, or even the BJP, which is looking at between 5-7 chairs of Asaduddin Owaisi. Both of these will raise problems for how chairs are shared for the general election as either MIM or BJP (determined by whom KCR allies with) will be demanding. Of course, KCR can violate the TDP again, as he did last time.

The median versus average does not make that much difference in states where exit polls have been in a broader range.

In Chhattisgarh, the median reverses who’s leading by putting the BJP beforehand, but it still shows a hung assembly, so Ajit Jogi and his motley alliance would be the kingmakers.

But Chhattisgarh does have one outlier, India Today Axis, that is calling a huge Congress victory. Wisdom does not encourage such a victory it considers that this state that is winnable was dropped by the Congress by not tying up with Jogi and the BSP. Last time around, the Congress trailed the BJP by less than 1 percent, and given how well they appear to have done in additional states, this should have been a cakewalk.

Madhya Pradesh is more intriguing and being the biggest of those countries, the most intriguing. This BJP bastion has been stormed by the Congress military of kamal Nath, but has it done enough to topple Chief Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan, who promised a massive BJP success and just yesterday called himself the biggest pollster? Well, a couple polls support him, and give the BJP 120+ seats in the house. A couple of pollsters give that to the Congress, but the graph below includes exit polls showing a house.

But the median graph provides the Congress a small edge, tantalizingly close to a majority, but not quite there.

The difficulty for the Congress remains that the BJP starts with a strong 72 chairs, while they, with only 58 chairs, need to pick up nearly that exact number to win. They would be seen by A 4-5% swing but swing must be in conventional Congress regions like Mahakaushal and Chambal. They need to crack Malwa to triumph and CSDS in their survey, which gave regional break ups, showed the Congress has breached the walls of Malwa together trailing the BJP with a mere 1 percent, and trailing the BJP 33 to 29 in a region where they barely held a seat last moment. The predictor could have made his prediction if this holds true.

What Malwa was to Madhya Pradesh, Mewar was to the BJP.

And it’s here, the Congress is said to have made inroads.

Today, Rajasthan might be said to be the pollsters’ dream. Everyone was calling a Congress victory long before the election started, so the question was how much could the Congress triumph? Early predictions were for the Congress becoming over 130 of 200 seats; even the satta economy went with that. Within the past couple of weeks, those Congress hopes are trimmed somewhat, and thus while everyone but one (Republic-Jan ki Baat) gets the Congress winning, most have cut their prediction into a tiny majority of 10 or so. In which a government was cobbled together by Congress with 96 seats there is even talk of a repeat of 2008. And though the average versus median does not show much difference , it’s worth recalling that as in the instance of Telangana, there’s very little time between the exit polls (which were broadcast only after voting ended in Rajasthan and Telangana). So it’s a bit raw.

That, with the fact that the Congress needs enormous swing of 8% to win, has maintained BJP hopes living. And this could be the story of this election: the Congress failing to acquire the states that it needs to. From failing to capitalize enough on the factor or making no or bad alliances, it has missed the opportunity to win 5-0. Enjoy in Karnataka, it might just limp home and take pleasure. The facts and opinions appearing in this article don’t reflect the views of NDTV and NDTV does not assume any liability or responsibility for exactly the same.

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